Expert engagement in participatory processes: translating stakeholder discourses into policy options     

JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer  Anna Scolobig  Settimio Ferlisi  Leonardo Cascini  Michael Thompson 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(1):69-101

This paper demonstrates an innovative role for experts in supporting participatory policy processes with an application to landslide risk management in the Italian town of Nocera Inferiore. Experts co-produce risk mitigation options based on their specialized knowledge taking account of local knowledge and values by directly coupling stakeholder discourses with option design. Drawing on the theory of plural rationality and based on a literature review, interviews and a public questionnaire, stakeholder discourses are elicited on the landslide risk problem and its solution. Armed with the discourses and in close interaction with stakeholders, experts provide a range of technical mitigation options, each within a given budget constraint. These options are subsequently deliberated in the participatory process with the intent of reaching compromise recommendations for landslide risk mitigation. As we show in an accompanying paper, “Compromise not consensus. Designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation” (this issue), the provision of multiple co-produced policy options enhances stakeholder deliberation by respecting legitimate differences in values and worldviews.  相似文献   

Tithonian age of dinosaur fossils in central Patagonian,Chile: U–Pb SHRIMP geochronology     

Manuel Suárez  Rita De La Cruz  Mark Fanning  Fernando Novas  Leonardo Salgado 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,105(8):2273-2284

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Temporal changes in pelagic copepod assemblages off Ubatuba,Brazil          下载免费PDF全文

Mauro Melo Júnior  Catarina R. Marcolin  Leonardo K. Miyashita  Rubens M. Lopes 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(4):877-890

The inner shelf waters off Southeastern Brazil are periodically enriched by bottom intrusions of the cold and nutrient‐rich South Atlantic Central Water (SACW), which is transported offshore by the Brazil Current. This study examined the temporal contrasts in abundance and structure of pelagic copepod assemblages in a neritic station off Ubatuba, in relation to hydrography and phytoplankton biomass, to investigate the effects of SACW bottom intrusions on copepod population dynamics during three consecutive years. The water‐column characteristics shifted from a well‐mixed, more turbid and phytoplankton‐poor scenario during subsidence conditions to a stratified, less turbid and high Chl‐a concentration scenario during SACW bottom intrusions, leading to increased copepod diversity, abundance, and biomass. The rise in copepod diversity during SACW intrusions was related to the contribution of oceanic species in addition to coastal water species. The copepod community was numerically dominated by small‐sized species, such as Oncaea waldemari, Oithona plumifera, and clausocalanid and paracalanid copepodids, regardless of seasonality and SACW intrusions. Some large calanoid species contributed considerably to the total copepod biomass during intrusions. In addition to confirming that SACW seasonal intrusions play a key role in pelagic processes off Southeast Brazil, this study showed that the multiannual variability of SACW seasonal intrusions is important in regulating the structure and dynamics of copepod communities in this subtropical area.  相似文献   

A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective     

Francesco Ragone  Valerio Lucarini  Frank Lunkeit 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(5-6):1459-1471

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Horizontal accuracy assessment of very high resolution Google Earth images in the city of Rome,Italy     

Giuseppe Pulighe  Valerio Baiocchi  Flavio Lupia 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2016,9(4):342-362

Google Earth (GE) has recently become the focus of increasing interest and popularity among available online virtual globes used in scientific research projects, due to the free and easily accessed satellite imagery provided with global coverage. Nevertheless, the uses of this service raises several research questions on the quality and uncertainty of spatial data (e.g. positional accuracy, precision, consistency), with implications for potential uses like data collection and validation. This paper aims to analyze the horizontal accuracy of very high resolution (VHR) GE images in the city of Rome (Italy) for the years 2007, 2011, and 2013. The evaluation was conducted by using both Global Positioning System ground truth data and cadastral photogrammetric vertex as independent check points. The validation process includes the comparison of histograms, graph plots, tests of normality, azimuthal direction errors, and the calculation of standard statistical parameters. The results show that GE VHR imageries of Rome have an overall positional accuracy close to 1 m, sufficient for deriving ground truth samples, measurements, and large-scale planimetric maps.  相似文献   

Fine-scale vertical distribution of coastal and offshore copepods in the Golfo de Arauco, central Chile, during the upwelling season     

Leonardo R. Castro  Victor A. Troncoso 《Progress in Oceanography》2007,75(3):486-500

In order to understand the mechanism by which zooplankters from different origins co-occur during the upwelling season within Golfo de Arauco, one of the most productive areas in central Chile, we assessed short term variations in the vertical distribution of the most abundant copepod species. Fine-scale, day and night vertical zooplankton sampling was done with a pump over 12 days in summer. The water column in the gulf consisted of three layers: Equatorial Subsurface Water of low dissolved oxygen content in the deeper part of the water column, strong temperature and oxygen gradients at mid-depth (15-25 m), and a layer of warmer, more oxygenated, less saline water at the surface. Copepods within the gulf originated from offshore, from the continental shelf, and from the coastal area. Most taxa showed distinctive vertical distributions. Three copepod groups were identified by their mean weighted depths of residence. One group included shallow residents found above the thermocline/oxycline (Acartia tonsa, Centropages brachiatus, Corycaeus sp., Paracalanus parvus, Oncaea sp.). A second group was comprised by species distributed at or below the thermocline/oxycline (Oithona sp., Oncaea conifera, Lucicutia sp., Metridia sp., Heterorhabdus papilliger). The third group was composed of vertical migrators that crossed the thermocline/oxycline (Calanus chilensis, Calanoides patagoniensis, Aetideus armatus, Pleuromamma piseki). In spite of their different vertical distribution ranges, the most abundant and frequent copepod species (P. parvus, C. chilensis, C. patagoniensis, C. brachiatus) share a common capacity to withstand wide ranges of oxygen concentration and temperature. This characteristic, along with the capacity to vary their life strategies under different environmental conditions, seems to facilitate the maintenance of large numbers of copepods in coastal waters along the Humboldt Current.  相似文献   

Metal fluxes to the sediments of the northern Venice Lagoon     

Mauro Frignani  Luca G. Bellucci  Leonardo Langone  Herbert Muntau 《Marine Chemistry》1997,58(3-4)

Eighteen short cores were analyzed for major and trace metals (Al, Fe, Ca, Mg, Mn, Si, K, Ti, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cr), ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs, and other sediment characteristics, so as to describe the chronology of pollution and calculate metal concentration factors and fluxes. Substantial evidence was found that trace metal profiles are influenced by anthropogenic sources and by changes in sediment composition. Only Zn presents concentrations (up to 13.1 μmol g⁻) and concentration factors (1.3 to 13.2) that can be attributed to heavy contamination. Pb, Cu and Ni, in this order, are less significant. The areal distribution of concentrations and inventories reflects the importance of direct sources, in particular the industrial area of Porto Marghera and the Dese river. The inventories of excess metals, above pre-industrial levels, were determined for each core and the three different parts of the study area, the amounts of Zn accumulated in sediments are 11.0 Mmol, 5.1 Mmol and 0.37 Mmol in the Campalto, S. Erasmo, and Palude di Cona areas, respectively. Ruxes were also calculated and compared with those suggested for the atmospheric delivery by Cochran et al. [(1995)b. Atmospheric fluxes of heavy metal contaminants to the Venice Lagoon, Rapp. Comm. Int. Mer Médit., 34, 136.], the atmospheric contribution is predominant or significant in many cases, especially at sites far from the major local inputs. Concentrations and fluxes show a significant increase in the anthropogenic metal supply starting from the second decade of this century, with maximum inputs in the period between the (1930)s and the (1970)s. At some stations a decrease in heavy metal contamination of surficial sediments was found and this could be ascribed to a reduced input of pollutants in recent years.  相似文献   

Larval distribution and growth of the rockfish, Sebastes capensis (Sebastidae, Pisces), in the fjords of southern Chile     

Landaeta  Mauricio F.; Castro  Leonardo R. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2006,63(4):714-724

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A numerical procedure for predicting rainfall‐induced movements of active landslides along pre‐existing slip surfaces     

Michele Calvello  Leonardo Cascini  Giuseppe Sorbino 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2008,32(4):327-351

A numerical model to predict landslide movements along pre‐existing slip surfaces from rainfall data is presented. The model comprises: a transient seepage finite‐element analysis to compute the variations of pore water pressures due to rainfall; a limit equilibrium stability analysis to compute the factors of safety along the slip surface associated with transient pore pressure conditions; an empirical relationship between the factor of safety and the rate of displacement of the slide along the slip surface; an optimization algorithm for the calibration of analyses and relationships based on available monitoring data. The model is validated with reference to a well‐monitored active slide in central Italy, characterized by very slow movements occurring within a narrow band of weathered bedrock overlaid by a clayey silt colluvial cover. The model is conveniently divided and presented in two parts: a groundwater model and a kinematic model. In the first part, monthly recorded rainfall data are used as time‐dependent flow boundary conditions of the transient seepage analysis, while piezometric levels are used to calibrate the analysis by minimizing the errors between monitoring data and computed pore pressures. In the second part, measured inclinometric movements are used to calibrate the empirical relationship between the rate of displacement along the slip surface and the factor of safety, whose variation with time is computed by a time‐dependent stability analysis. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Accounting for soil parameter uncertainty in a physically based and distributed approach for rainfall‐triggered landslides          下载免费PDF全文

E. Arnone  Y. G. Dialynas  L. V. Noto  R. L. Bras 《水文研究》2016,30(6):927-944

In this study we propose a probabilistic approach for coupled distributed hydrological‐hillslope stability models that accounts for soil parameters uncertainty at basin scale. The geotechnical and soil retention curve parameters are treated as random variables across the basin and theoretical probability distributions of the Factor of Safety (FS) are estimated. The derived distributions are used to obtain the spatio‐temporal dynamics of probability of failure, in terms of parameters uncertainty, conditioned to soil moisture dynamics. The framework has been implemented in the tRIBS‐VEGGIE (Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)‐based Real‐time Integrated Basin Simulator‐VEGetation Generator for Interactive Evolution)‐Landslide model and applied to a basin in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (Puerto Rico) where shallow landslides are common. In particular, the methodology was used to evaluate how the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation, whose variability is significant over the basin, affect the distribution of probability of failure, through event scale analyses. Results indicate that hyetographs where heavy precipitation is near the end of the event lead to the most critical conditions in terms of probability of failure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献